* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/26/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 98 97 94 90 85 77 74 69 66 66 63 59 V (KT) LAND 100 74 54 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 100 73 54 41 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 16 21 16 24 22 30 22 21 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -3 -8 SHEAR DIR 251 259 231 230 251 218 233 225 235 229 240 268 282 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.0 29.4 29.8 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 156 155 156 151 149 147 155 163 166 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 128 128 126 127 124 122 122 129 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.1 0.7 0.6 1.0 0.8 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 0.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 9 10 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 8 7 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 68 65 63 56 61 55 57 54 58 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 25 23 21 22 20 23 23 23 22 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 19 15 -10 15 19 58 32 10 0 5 -2 200 MB DIV 13 8 29 35 12 46 48 59 31 38 32 -7 35 700-850 TADV 17 5 7 5 4 1 0 3 4 4 2 -1 6 LAND (KM) -28 -66 -104 -126 -147 -139 -84 -52 -23 -16 -21 -63 -100 LAT (DEG N) 28.2 28.5 28.8 28.9 29.0 28.9 28.4 28.1 27.9 28.2 28.8 29.3 29.6 LONG(DEG W) 97.1 97.3 97.5 97.7 97.9 97.9 97.7 97.6 97.4 96.9 96.2 95.9 96.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 3 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 44 46 51 52 29 31 44 37 39 43 57 53 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -13. -21. -27. -31. -35. -37. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -5. -6. -6. -7. -12. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -23. -26. -31. -34. -34. -37. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 28.2 97.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.28 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 100.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.33 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 149.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 3.7% 2.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 5.2% 0.9% 0.3% 999.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/26/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 100 74 54 42 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 100 99 79 67 61 55 53 52 52 52 52 52 52 12HR AGO 100 97 96 84 78 72 70 69 69 69 69 69 69 6HR AGO 100 94 91 90 84 78 76 75 75 75 75 75 75 NOW 100 91 85 82 81 75 73 72 72 72 72 72 72 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT