* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 108 106 107 104 92 86 75 74 68 67 63 68 V (KT) LAND 105 108 89 69 53 35 29 28 30 24 22 19 23 V (KT) LGEM 105 108 93 72 54 35 29 28 31 34 35 31 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 16 9 7 18 17 26 22 30 17 19 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 197 232 256 272 213 245 213 234 212 225 230 243 227 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 155 155 155 156 157 161 164 169 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 132 130 129 128 125 127 130 133 136 142 145 141 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 8 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 71 72 66 65 59 61 53 54 54 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 29 26 29 27 22 22 19 22 23 24 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 24 23 10 2 19 -17 17 12 51 8 1 -27 0 200 MB DIV 55 66 29 14 30 19 56 49 46 11 34 11 51 700-850 TADV 5 17 13 3 3 4 1 -6 1 2 0 7 1 LAND (KM) 107 50 -14 -48 -83 -121 -113 -62 22 49 8 -16 -87 LAT (DEG N) 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.7 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.2 28.3 28.9 29.7 30.5 LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.6 97.0 97.1 97.3 97.5 97.5 97.1 96.3 95.7 95.2 94.7 94.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 3 3 1 1 3 3 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 33 31 42 47 47 50 52 49 24 41 36 54 40 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -15. -23. -28. -33. -37. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -5. -4. -4. -1. 2. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. -0. 2. 0. -5. -6. -11. -8. -8. -8. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 1. 2. -1. -13. -19. -30. -31. -37. -38. -42. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 27.1 96.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 40.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 105.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.25 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 25.9 28.4 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 51.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.88 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 16.1% 20.5% 16.9% 8.7% 2.8% 2.9% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 7.7% 5.2% 2.7% 0.2% 999.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.1% 14.7% 6.5% 3.0% 999.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** 0(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 105 108 89 69 53 35 29 28 30 24 22 19 23 18HR AGO 105 104 85 65 49 31 25 24 26 20 18 15 19 12HR AGO 105 102 101 81 65 47 41 40 42 36 34 31 35 6HR AGO 105 99 96 95 79 61 55 54 56 50 48 45 49 NOW 105 96 90 87 86 68 62 61 63 57 55 52 56 IN 6HR 105 108 99 93 90 82 76 75 77 71 69 66 70 IN 12HR 105 108 89 80 74 70 64 63 65 59 57 54 58