* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 101 103 102 102 95 87 79 74 69 70 66 72 V (KT) LAND 95 101 103 78 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 95 101 104 82 61 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 12 15 10 16 15 23 26 30 25 23 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -3 0 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 195 229 260 267 232 245 210 230 218 225 226 213 SST (C) 29.6 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 162 156 152 153 153 153 152 153 156 160 164 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 136 129 128 127 124 123 125 129 131 136 142 140 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -50.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.9 -51.6 -52.2 -51.4 -52.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 11 8 7 10 6 9 6 9 5 8 5 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 68 70 70 65 62 60 53 46 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 26 28 24 23 21 23 23 28 26 30 850 MB ENV VOR 12 23 18 10 0 15 -6 32 30 41 11 13 6 200 MB DIV 17 62 67 26 14 44 34 73 22 47 18 37 34 700-850 TADV -1 3 15 15 4 10 0 -6 -1 -5 -2 -1 1 LAND (KM) 137 92 19 -30 -79 -103 -101 -73 -32 -8 -10 -33 -54 LAT (DEG N) 26.4 27.1 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.3 30.0 LONG(DEG W) 95.9 96.5 97.0 97.3 97.5 97.6 97.7 97.4 96.9 96.4 96.0 95.4 94.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 3 0 1 2 2 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 50 32 11 42 45 46 46 45 47 54 54 56 49 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -4. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. -2. -5. -8. -7. -7. -1. -5. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 7. 7. 0. -8. -16. -21. -26. -25. -29. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 26.4 95.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.73 4.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.4 to -3.0 0.66 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 5.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 95.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.41 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.08 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 132.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.81 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.4 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.0% 34.6% 28.2% 19.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 23.6% 35.8% 29.0% 15.1% 4.5% 11.4% 3.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 29.2% 11.9% 11.0% 1.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 26.9% 27.5% 22.8% 11.9% 1.7% 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) 0(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 101 103 78 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 95 94 96 71 51 30 23 21 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 95 92 91 66 46 25 18 16 15 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 65 44 37 35 34 34 34 34 34 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 55 48 46 45 45 45 45 45 IN 6HR 95 101 92 86 83 74 67 65 64 64 64 64 64 IN 12HR 95 101 103 94 88 84 77 75 74 74 74 74 74