* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/25/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 95 99 102 100 100 88 83 73 69 66 67 68 V (KT) LAND 90 95 99 102 100 62 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 96 100 102 102 63 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 6 3 10 15 10 23 20 27 22 30 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -3 -2 -4 -2 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 249 203 244 262 221 248 215 231 228 227 235 234 SST (C) 30.0 29.8 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 165 159 155 153 153 153 154 150 153 161 169 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 143 137 133 130 126 124 125 122 126 135 142 148 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.6 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 7 9 11 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 700-500 MB RH 68 67 69 68 69 70 65 62 56 58 48 47 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 27 25 28 23 24 21 23 24 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 28 11 20 24 11 13 -15 12 15 39 0 19 3 200 MB DIV 27 17 46 56 27 34 34 52 28 30 11 33 22 700-850 TADV 7 1 5 18 16 7 8 1 -6 2 1 -1 5 LAND (KM) 211 163 122 86 25 -58 -83 -90 -77 -58 -38 -42 -14 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.2 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.4 28.7 29.2 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.6 96.1 96.5 96.9 97.3 97.3 97.4 97.6 97.3 96.6 95.6 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 3 0 1 1 2 4 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 83 65 41 31 17 45 47 46 44 45 53 58 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -6. -12. -16. -20. -23. -25. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 0. 3. -3. -3. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 12. 10. 10. -2. -7. -17. -21. -24. -23. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 25.6 95.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 11.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.76 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.4 to -3.0 0.60 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 90.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.18 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.79 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 7.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 29.9% 36.7% 28.5% 22.6% 20.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 18.3% 32.0% 24.7% 12.5% 3.5% 10.2% 3.7% 0.4% Bayesian: 19.5% 22.1% 17.7% 7.4% 2.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 22.6% 30.2% 23.7% 14.2% 8.7% 3.5% 1.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/25/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) 0(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 95 99 102 100 62 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 90 89 93 96 94 56 34 25 22 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 90 87 86 89 87 49 27 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 78 40 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 90 95 86 80 77 58 36 27 24 23 23 23 23 IN 12HR 90 95 99 90 84 80 58 49 46 45 45 45 45