* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 85 92 98 104 104 105 94 87 75 69 61 55 V (KT) LAND 75 85 92 98 104 104 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 89 101 110 115 112 66 39 31 28 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 13 11 7 20 8 20 20 26 23 31 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -3 -1 -3 1 0 -3 0 -1 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 196 210 240 261 246 260 217 239 217 236 215 229 239 SST (C) 30.6 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 171 170 170 169 163 157 155 156 155 154 153 156 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 163 156 153 149 142 133 129 127 125 126 127 129 135 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.4 -50.7 -51.1 -51.5 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 68 70 68 74 69 67 60 64 57 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 23 26 29 29 31 25 24 21 22 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 22 31 10 10 41 9 18 -13 17 11 38 9 2 200 MB DIV 30 36 35 23 41 24 36 37 62 49 34 31 9 700-850 TADV 5 12 8 5 4 20 5 7 4 -1 4 2 0 LAND (KM) 394 322 254 196 151 22 -68 -128 -134 -111 -50 -17 -12 LAT (DEG N) 24.4 24.9 25.4 26.1 26.7 27.9 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.8 28.3 28.3 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 93.6 94.1 94.7 95.2 95.8 96.7 97.2 97.6 97.7 97.6 97.3 96.8 96.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 8 7 6 3 1 0 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 71 73 82 83 49 15 48 50 50 52 44 47 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 10 CX,CY: -3/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 491 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 5. 2. -1. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 2. -0. -5. -5. -7. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 10. 17. 23. 29. 29. 30. 19. 12. 0. -6. -14. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.4 93.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 35.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 26.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.74 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 71.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.46 4.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.56 6.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 9.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 75.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.73 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.44 3.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.30 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 95.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 55% is 10.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 8.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 12.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 16.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 38% is 7.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 6.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.0% 63.6% 63.5% 51.4% 45.4% 37.8% 36.1% 34.1% Logistic: 66.3% 80.5% 75.2% 64.1% 41.9% 49.0% 32.0% 12.5% Bayesian: 23.7% 1.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 48.4% 48.6% 46.5% 38.5% 29.1% 29.0% 22.7% 15.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) *** ***(***) ***(***) ***(***) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) ER ERR ERR ERR PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 85 92 98 104 104 61 38 30 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 81 87 93 93 50 27 19 17 16 16 16 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 83 83 40 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 71 71 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 75 85 76 70 67 65 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 75 85 92 83 77 73 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS