* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/24/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 39 43 54 65 73 72 68 63 57 50 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 39 43 54 65 63 44 33 29 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 38 46 57 66 41 32 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 5 10 3 6 13 17 18 26 34 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -6 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 -1 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 213 234 262 206 194 243 225 277 239 270 233 260 242 SST (C) 29.5 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.4 29.8 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.7 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 158 166 170 171 171 165 157 156 156 156 158 160 166 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 149 154 159 159 147 136 131 128 125 129 132 135 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -51.9 -52.2 -51.1 -51.3 -50.5 -51.6 -51.0 -52.1 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.6 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.7 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 12 9 11 7 10 7 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 69 67 67 67 69 70 73 71 67 66 60 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 15 16 16 20 23 26 22 20 16 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 17 25 15 17 20 7 22 -3 8 -21 8 -20 -4 200 MB DIV 12 22 14 14 25 28 68 7 28 16 73 10 52 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 3 4 0 15 5 13 0 -4 -7 -13 LAND (KM) 230 286 349 428 344 173 106 -1 -64 -81 -57 -25 -30 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 22.3 22.9 23.6 24.3 25.5 27.0 28.1 28.7 28.9 28.7 28.7 29.0 LONG(DEG W) 92.4 92.7 93.0 93.6 94.2 95.5 96.3 96.8 97.0 97.0 96.9 96.4 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 9 8 9 7 4 2 0 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 33 43 52 65 70 76 34 43 48 53 48 54 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 460 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 6. 3. -2. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 6. 9. 13. 9. 5. -1. -3. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 24. 35. 43. 42. 38. 33. 27. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.7 92.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 30.1 to 2.9 0.77 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.6 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 63.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 8.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 28.9% 17.3% 9.7% 8.4% 15.3% 29.7% 52.3% Logistic: 9.1% 44.7% 32.8% 16.8% 6.7% 41.4% 49.6% 50.1% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.7% 4.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.6% 2.9% 4.8% Consensus: 5.6% 26.4% 18.1% 9.1% 5.1% 19.1% 27.4% 35.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/24/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 39 43 54 65 63 44 33 29 28 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 36 40 51 62 60 41 30 26 25 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 44 55 53 34 23 19 18 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 35 46 44 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT