* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/23/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 44 51 62 68 74 69 68 63 62 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 44 51 62 51 36 30 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 41 49 59 52 36 30 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 10 6 5 8 8 10 7 18 18 36 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -3 -5 -1 -5 1 0 -1 -3 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 236 215 236 259 189 220 171 260 252 272 249 257 255 SST (C) 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.4 29.9 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.5 POT. INT. (KT) 157 165 171 171 171 168 154 156 160 162 162 168 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 149 154 158 159 150 134 131 132 131 132 140 151 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.6 -51.1 -51.3 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 68 68 65 65 65 69 66 70 63 62 59 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 15 15 19 20 22 18 17 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 4 21 27 16 19 9 25 0 17 -26 -6 -23 13 200 MB DIV 12 6 21 17 22 36 33 27 11 14 31 56 17 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 2 0 8 10 5 7 1 -5 -2 LAND (KM) 234 292 359 428 362 190 74 -39 -85 -106 -117 -74 -6 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.2 22.8 23.6 24.3 25.7 27.3 28.4 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 LONG(DEG W) 92.5 92.8 93.2 93.6 94.0 95.3 96.6 97.0 96.8 96.6 96.4 95.5 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 8 8 8 10 8 5 3 2 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 43 52 65 70 82 31 46 53 53 52 48 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 6. 9. 2. 1. -2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 14. 21. 32. 38. 44. 39. 38. 33. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 21.5 92.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 7.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 52.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.34 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.4 to -3.0 0.62 2.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.56 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 70.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 62% is 10.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.8% 34.2% 20.8% 10.1% 8.7% 16.0% 32.0% 61.8% Logistic: 12.3% 54.0% 41.4% 24.8% 11.0% 51.5% 56.2% 61.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 10.4% 4.7% 0.8% 0.4% 2.5% 8.5% 12.2% Consensus: 7.1% 32.9% 22.3% 11.9% 6.7% 23.3% 32.2% 45.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 44 51 62 51 36 30 28 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 40 47 58 47 32 26 24 23 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 41 52 41 26 20 18 17 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 43 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT