* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/23/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 35 44 54 67 75 78 79 78 75 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 35 44 54 67 59 37 30 28 27 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 30 35 42 51 49 34 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 5 10 6 10 4 7 7 11 15 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -3 -3 0 2 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 239 255 263 227 203 242 176 214 196 256 228 272 224 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.7 30.0 30.5 30.1 29.4 29.0 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 155 162 169 171 171 158 151 160 157 156 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 135 139 145 152 163 152 138 129 134 128 126 132 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -51.9 -52.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.4 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 1.0 0.5 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 9 11 12 9 12 8 11 8 12 8 12 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 67 66 64 64 62 62 62 62 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 10 10 12 12 15 16 20 22 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -8 -5 0 17 28 3 24 0 13 1 2 -14 9 200 MB DIV 28 23 5 23 16 6 39 16 40 -8 10 1 41 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 1 1 0 6 1 11 3 5 1 -8 LAND (KM) 56 117 182 245 311 399 231 115 -46 -176 -241 -242 -193 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 90.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 7 5 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 32 28 31 38 48 70 86 37 36 29 0 0 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 27. 31. 33. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 10. 19. 29. 42. 50. 53. 54. 53. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.8 90.9 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.80 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 35.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.23 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.64 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 80.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 3.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 17.3% 13.2% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 18.8% 0.0% Logistic: 6.2% 26.6% 16.1% 5.2% 2.5% 30.8% 49.7% 70.8% Bayesian: 1.1% 2.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 4.1% 6.2% Consensus: 4.2% 15.5% 10.1% 4.4% 0.9% 10.4% 24.2% 25.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/23/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 28 32 35 44 54 67 59 37 30 28 27 18HR AGO 25 24 26 30 33 42 52 65 57 35 28 26 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 28 37 47 60 52 30 23 21 20 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 27 37 50 42 20 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT