* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/22/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 32 39 51 62 74 81 85 79 79 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 32 35 42 54 65 77 61 38 30 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 28 29 31 32 37 43 52 63 54 36 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 6 10 9 6 10 7 9 7 13 9 24 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -4 -5 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 303 233 245 267 225 241 193 206 164 257 259 262 242 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.4 29.8 30.4 30.4 30.0 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 152 157 164 170 171 169 159 161 161 156 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 138 138 141 147 158 158 149 138 136 133 126 129 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.1 -51.6 -50.9 -50.8 -51.2 -51.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.3 1.7 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 68 69 68 68 67 65 64 62 64 63 66 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 10 10 11 12 16 18 23 25 26 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -4 1 6 20 18 17 11 13 -5 14 -25 3 200 MB DIV 13 31 19 1 14 13 17 36 25 29 24 17 41 700-850 TADV 3 3 1 0 1 1 5 4 7 24 6 15 1 LAND (KM) -66 28 126 195 265 400 334 201 96 -57 -156 -193 -161 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 89.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 8 7 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 28 34 42 62 72 86 33 48 33 0 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 8.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 23. 27. 31. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 15. 17. 17. 10. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 14. 26. 37. 49. 56. 60. 54. 54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 20.3 89.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.9 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.68 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.54 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 28.4 to 139.6 0.79 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 18.6% 14.3% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0% 19.2% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 28.7% 18.3% 5.5% 1.7% 12.2% 28.2% 69.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.4% 1.6% Consensus: 3.7% 15.9% 10.9% 4.6% 0.6% 4.1% 15.9% 23.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 28 30 32 35 42 54 65 77 61 38 30 28 18HR AGO 25 24 26 28 31 38 50 61 73 57 34 26 24 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 26 33 45 56 68 52 29 21 19 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 25 37 48 60 44 21 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT