* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/22/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 35 44 54 69 79 91 92 94 85 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 30 34 43 53 68 78 68 45 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 30 32 38 46 56 68 63 42 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 3 3 5 2 14 6 12 9 18 15 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 -5 -4 -4 -4 0 1 1 SHEAR DIR 41 8 33 221 261 210 257 233 213 185 261 239 252 SST (C) 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.2 30.3 30.6 29.7 28.8 29.4 29.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 151 148 148 155 172 173 164 145 158 164 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 149 140 134 132 141 164 170 146 120 138 141 116 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.5 -51.6 -50.9 -50.7 -50.9 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 11 10 11 11 10 9 10 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 69 69 69 70 69 66 65 65 60 66 63 65 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 11 11 13 15 20 23 28 27 27 21 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -8 -5 -2 -2 8 5 23 10 26 -8 3 -20 200 MB DIV 45 16 23 38 24 10 9 40 33 49 8 29 30 700-850 TADV 7 2 2 5 1 2 5 8 9 7 29 15 9 LAND (KM) -23 -137 -49 10 59 155 347 358 115 -29 -24 -138 -231 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.1 20.5 21.7 23.7 26.0 27.4 27.7 28.3 30.3 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 89.1 90.1 90.6 91.0 91.6 92.0 93.6 95.9 97.6 96.9 95.9 95.8 STM SPEED (KT) 16 12 8 6 5 9 12 13 11 2 9 10 3 HEAT CONTENT 82 56 39 17 35 30 59 75 35 35 46 25 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 14. 20. 18. 17. 9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 19. 29. 44. 54. 66. 67. 69. 60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.6 87.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.93 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 45.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.29 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.4 to -3.0 0.59 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.80 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 86.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 18.4% 14.0% 8.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 30.3% 16.7% 4.3% 1.3% 12.6% 24.9% 65.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 999.0% 0.7% 3.8% 22.1% Consensus: 999.0% 16.7% 10.4% 4.2% 999.0% 4.4% 15.7% 29.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 26 30 34 43 53 68 78 68 45 34 29 18HR AGO 25 24 24 28 32 41 51 66 76 66 43 32 27 12HR AGO 25 22 21 25 29 38 48 63 73 63 40 29 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 28 38 53 63 53 30 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT