* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/22/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 48 58 71 80 89 94 94 94 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 30 35 45 55 67 76 85 44 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 25 29 31 38 47 58 74 89 46 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 2 3 3 5 2 6 6 16 25 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -2 -3 0 -3 1 -5 -2 4 2 SHEAR DIR 73 153 359 74 159 5 89 347 298 266 235 255 234 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.4 30.7 30.3 29.1 29.8 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 162 159 155 154 152 151 150 160 175 175 153 165 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 168 156 147 141 136 133 136 153 175 170 132 140 139 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.1 -52.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 8 12 9 12 7 12 9 12 700-500 MB RH 68 70 70 69 70 69 67 65 63 62 65 63 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 10 11 11 14 16 19 20 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 19 0 -3 0 5 1 0 19 17 -7 13 3 15 200 MB DIV 71 53 18 19 32 18 29 8 35 28 38 2 39 700-850 TADV 3 4 0 2 4 0 6 0 12 12 17 0 3 LAND (KM) 67 -91 -63 14 30 33 118 197 436 10 -296 -289 -79 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.9 19.1 19.2 19.1 18.9 19.8 21.6 25.2 29.0 30.8 29.7 28.5 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 88.8 90.1 91.0 91.5 91.8 91.9 92.1 92.9 95.1 97.9 99.2 97.5 STM SPEED (KT) 21 15 10 7 4 2 6 14 21 20 10 8 11 HEAT CONTENT 86 54 40 22 29 8 30 31 65 27 0 0 45 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 23 CX,CY: -20/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 527 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 28. 32. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 13. 10. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 23. 33. 46. 55. 64. 69. 69. 69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 18.2 87.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 6.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.97 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 46.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.32 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 76.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.86 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.9% 32.5% 19.4% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 0.0% Logistic: 999.0% 37.0% 22.8% 8.6% 4.0% 23.8% 33.0% 61.8% Bayesian: 0.4% 4.4% 2.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 16.9% Consensus: 999.0% 24.6% 15.0% 6.2% 1.4% 8.2% 18.1% 26.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/22/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 30 35 45 55 67 76 85 44 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 25 30 35 45 55 67 76 85 44 32 28 12HR AGO 25 22 21 26 31 41 51 63 72 81 40 28 24 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 20 30 40 52 61 70 29 17 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT