* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/21/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 56 63 73 79 84 82 84 V (KT) LAND 25 27 26 26 27 35 43 50 60 67 43 32 28 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 25 26 32 37 44 51 61 41 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 7 3 6 3 8 2 9 3 10 6 20 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 -3 0 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 27 45 16 344 9 282 268 255 177 243 222 275 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 29.4 29.9 29.9 28.9 29.1 29.9 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 158 156 153 149 158 167 168 151 154 168 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 169 164 154 148 143 135 144 153 155 137 138 145 125 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 9 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 63 67 68 67 67 68 65 64 62 59 64 62 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 7 8 10 11 10 13 14 14 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 29 26 7 -4 -6 -7 0 7 12 -16 0 -1 0 200 MB DIV 43 67 45 12 11 23 14 11 18 10 31 59 33 700-850 TADV 0 2 3 0 3 2 2 0 2 12 4 18 2 LAND (KM) 128 152 -7 -100 -85 75 227 371 255 36 -138 -345 -490 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.8 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.2 22.4 23.9 25.6 27.8 29.6 30.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.5 86.3 87.7 88.8 89.8 91.2 92.5 93.7 95.3 96.9 98.7 100.1 100.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 13 11 9 7 8 9 11 12 13 10 5 HEAT CONTENT 52 68 57 59 40 37 30 56 66 24 38 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. 1. 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. -0. 3. 4. 3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 31. 38. 48. 54. 59. 57. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 17.0 84.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.87 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 55.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.54 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.92 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.31 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.8 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 31.9% 18.2% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 18.6% 0.0% Logistic: 12.7% 45.3% 29.2% 14.3% 9.7% 41.1% 41.7% 68.4% Bayesian: 0.8% 8.3% 6.5% 1.4% 0.1% 4.5% 4.7% 24.2% Consensus: 7.0% 28.5% 18.0% 8.4% 3.3% 15.2% 21.7% 30.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 26 26 27 35 43 50 60 67 43 32 28 18HR AGO 25 24 23 23 24 32 40 47 57 64 40 29 25 12HR AGO 25 22 21 21 22 30 38 45 55 62 38 27 23 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 24 32 39 49 56 32 21 17 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT