* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/21/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 25 27 31 38 48 57 64 74 83 86 84 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 27 31 27 38 47 54 64 73 54 35 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 26 25 33 38 45 53 63 51 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 10 7 3 3 7 3 7 4 7 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 2 -3 0 0 0 -3 0 -5 0 -5 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 30 6 15 29 348 318 272 302 273 347 272 220 241 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.4 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.0 29.3 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 153 162 168 164 163 163 164 162 170 172 160 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 158 166 171 162 155 150 148 143 159 164 152 155 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -51.9 -51.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 11 11 11 10 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 64 64 64 68 69 67 71 71 73 70 69 69 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 10 11 12 15 16 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 40 22 16 27 9 -5 9 16 24 36 11 -2 -11 200 MB DIV 64 42 44 70 61 10 29 25 21 25 22 28 43 700-850 TADV 14 11 -3 0 5 1 0 1 0 -1 6 4 3 LAND (KM) 305 179 157 213 44 -73 134 179 205 255 183 -164 -468 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.3 17.2 18.1 18.9 20.0 20.2 20.1 20.2 21.2 23.5 26.0 27.7 LONG(DEG W) 80.4 82.2 84.0 85.6 87.1 89.8 91.8 93.2 93.8 94.5 96.0 98.9 102.1 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 17 15 12 8 5 3 10 15 18 16 HEAT CONTENT 70 44 52 71 98 46 30 28 33 56 56 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 18 CX,CY: -16/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 502 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 1. 4. 5. 2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 2. 6. 13. 23. 32. 39. 49. 58. 61. 59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.5 80.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.4 28.4 to 139.6 0.98 2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 105.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 22.3% 14.7% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% Logistic: 3.3% 24.7% 12.5% 5.4% 5.3% 10.7% 30.3% 71.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% 3.2% Consensus: 3.0% 15.7% 9.1% 4.7% 1.8% 3.6% 16.0% 24.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 24 25 27 31 27 38 47 54 64 73 54 35 18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 31 27 38 47 54 64 73 54 35 12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 27 23 34 43 50 60 69 50 31 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 19 15 26 35 42 52 61 42 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT