* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/21/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 33 44 54 63 71 79 85 94 91 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 30 33 33 33 43 51 59 65 74 44 V (KT) LGEM 25 24 24 25 27 27 27 37 45 54 66 77 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 6 9 8 5 5 4 5 2 9 2 8 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 7 0 -3 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 30 25 13 20 66 351 200 328 316 335 313 276 229 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.5 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.9 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 150 154 164 168 163 165 167 164 165 169 167 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 160 169 170 157 154 152 146 153 164 164 157 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -52.8 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.7 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 10 11 11 9 12 9 11 8 12 9 13 700-500 MB RH 66 67 66 65 68 69 71 73 73 72 71 68 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 54 45 29 17 23 1 8 16 25 28 41 26 -3 200 MB DIV 53 79 48 43 57 31 26 36 22 16 20 33 33 700-850 TADV 1 13 6 -4 1 0 4 -1 4 -1 7 -3 20 LAND (KM) 330 326 195 179 203 -98 12 22 13 95 240 71 -290 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.5 16.4 17.4 18.1 19.1 19.3 18.8 18.7 19.3 21.1 23.6 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 78.4 80.2 82.1 84.0 85.7 88.6 90.8 92.0 92.6 93.3 94.6 97.1 100.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 19 21 19 17 12 8 5 2 8 15 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 57 75 45 54 71 91 36 26 47 25 52 36 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. 0. 5. 11. 19. 24. 28. 33. 37. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 8. 19. 29. 38. 46. 54. 60. 69. 66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.9 78.4 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.82 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.50 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 25.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.07 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.97 2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.41 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 91.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 32.8% 17.4% 9.2% 0.0% 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 37.6% 22.3% 10.5% 6.4% 27.0% 53.1% 76.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 21.9% Consensus: 4.0% 23.7% 13.3% 6.6% 2.1% 9.0% 24.4% 32.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/21/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 27 30 33 33 33 43 51 59 65 74 44 18HR AGO 25 24 25 28 31 31 31 41 49 57 63 72 42 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 27 27 37 45 53 59 68 38 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 18 18 28 36 44 50 59 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT