* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/20/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 60 69 76 82 88 90 91 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 43 52 36 31 29 27 27 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 33 30 28 27 27 30 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 9 5 6 6 2 2 5 4 4 4 4 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 6 1 -1 0 0 -3 -1 -4 -1 -2 3 SHEAR DIR 20 46 35 7 27 354 39 277 347 327 7 337 25 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.8 29.9 30.0 30.0 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 150 152 158 168 168 168 167 168 166 166 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 157 158 164 169 162 157 151 152 154 160 162 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 10 11 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 66 64 70 69 74 74 77 76 80 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 9 9 10 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 53 37 16 7 -8 6 39 52 70 84 67 200 MB DIV 38 56 76 52 38 46 27 32 43 44 43 53 48 700-850 TADV -2 4 10 6 -3 2 2 0 1 1 1 1 1 LAND (KM) 367 409 311 139 91 45 -83 -22 -65 -101 -33 6 -134 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.6 17.8 18.5 18.4 17.8 17.4 17.9 18.9 20.2 LONG(DEG W) 76.7 78.5 80.3 82.2 84.0 87.6 90.4 92.2 93.3 93.6 94.2 95.7 98.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 20 20 19 16 11 7 3 2 6 11 14 HEAT CONTENT 55 42 55 38 46 73 49 48 37 63 45 7 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 435 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -3. -4. -4. -4. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 13. 22. 30. 39. 46. 52. 58. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.8 76.7 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.81 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 47.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.30 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.89 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 111.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.83 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 55% is 9.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 27.1% 15.3% 9.2% 7.9% 14.8% 20.7% 54.9% Logistic: 10.2% 32.1% 18.0% 9.0% 8.0% 28.6% 46.2% 71.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 15.7% 6.0% 1.9% 0.3% 1.4% 3.9% 16.1% Consensus: 6.6% 25.0% 13.1% 6.7% 5.4% 14.9% 23.6% 47.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 43 52 36 31 29 27 27 30 27 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 39 48 32 27 25 23 23 26 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 42 26 21 19 17 17 20 17 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 32 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT