* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/20/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 54 64 73 81 86 92 94 97 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 54 40 31 28 27 27 30 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 47 38 30 28 27 27 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 3 3 5 6 8 7 7 2 6 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 2 3 0 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 342 13 60 64 53 85 44 67 19 52 313 265 299 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.1 29.8 30.3 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.3 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 151 157 167 171 169 167 168 170 166 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 157 158 163 168 170 163 163 164 166 159 162 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.7 -53.3 -52.6 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 9 11 7 10 8 10 7 11 7 700-500 MB RH 57 57 60 63 67 70 76 75 79 79 80 80 80 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 8 9 9 7 7 7 8 7 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 62 51 64 60 54 36 30 28 42 49 60 78 92 200 MB DIV 22 29 62 81 60 69 34 36 46 53 44 39 53 700-850 TADV 1 -3 1 4 1 0 0 5 0 4 2 3 -1 LAND (KM) 352 304 356 140 8 44 -105 -226 -166 -160 -140 15 -68 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.8 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.5 17.2 18.4 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 77.7 79.8 82.0 84.1 87.5 89.9 91.2 91.9 92.2 92.9 94.5 96.9 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 21 21 19 14 9 4 2 3 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 91 75 72 35 37 63 39 0 69 68 70 19 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 9.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 34. 43. 51. 56. 62. 64. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 75.5 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.8 30.1 to 2.9 0.89 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.40 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.39 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 4.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.38 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 162.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 21.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 3.6 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.7 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 41.4% 23.6% 10.0% 8.8% 16.7% 24.8% 42.5% Logistic: 27.9% 52.4% 36.4% 30.8% 28.0% 40.9% 37.0% 60.2% Bayesian: 3.8% 11.5% 10.4% 3.9% 1.2% 1.4% 0.2% 3.1% Consensus: 13.5% 35.1% 23.5% 14.9% 12.7% 19.6% 20.7% 35.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 46 54 40 31 28 27 27 30 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 50 36 27 24 23 23 26 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 43 29 20 17 16 16 19 16 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT