* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/20/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 59 68 79 85 90 96 97 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 41 49 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 34 36 42 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 12 8 3 1 9 9 14 7 7 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 3 5 0 -3 -5 -1 -1 -1 0 1 SHEAR DIR 348 347 9 50 77 65 54 66 40 12 335 359 218 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.6 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.1 29.9 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 149 150 153 165 172 169 168 169 170 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 157 158 159 161 170 172 163 162 166 161 163 164 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 12 12 11 10 8 9 9 9 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 54 57 58 61 64 68 75 76 79 77 79 77 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 8 8 10 10 9 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 66 52 68 67 42 43 27 42 34 41 76 100 200 MB DIV 6 24 34 60 78 58 51 43 40 68 42 44 50 700-850 TADV 2 0 -4 0 6 -2 2 0 2 1 2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 281 341 292 354 132 38 -32 -181 -203 -191 -105 -7 -112 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.7 16.1 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.7 17.5 18.3 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 73.3 75.5 77.6 79.9 82.2 86.4 89.3 90.7 91.3 92.0 93.0 94.7 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 21 21 21 22 22 17 11 4 3 5 8 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 46 97 80 76 37 44 77 0 72 67 53 4 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 35. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -2. -3. -5. -6. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 29. 38. 49. 55. 60. 66. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.5 73.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 30.1 to 2.9 0.83 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 67.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.43 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.42 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.90 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.33 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 173.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.77 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 7.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 19.2% 14.1% 8.3% 6.9% 13.7% 19.1% 43.4% Logistic: 5.7% 20.6% 10.0% 3.7% 2.4% 11.6% 18.2% 51.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 14.7% Consensus: 4.2% 13.4% 8.2% 4.0% 3.1% 8.5% 12.5% 36.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 34 37 41 49 48 34 29 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 38 46 45 31 26 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 33 41 40 26 21 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 32 31 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT