* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/20/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 51 61 67 73 75 80 80 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 51 61 39 36 38 43 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 31 34 39 46 34 30 37 40 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 8 2 6 4 11 3 14 13 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 4 4 0 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 2 349 347 2 355 350 21 22 224 291 271 287 267 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.5 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 149 148 148 149 162 169 167 166 166 163 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 155 156 154 151 151 162 165 158 153 151 148 148 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 -53.3 -52.6 -53.0 -52.5 -53.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 11 11 11 9 11 9 12 9 11 8 11 700-500 MB RH 54 58 61 62 64 69 71 75 73 74 76 74 76 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 7 9 8 9 8 9 6 850 MB ENV VOR 56 58 71 65 60 47 33 11 10 12 27 41 61 200 MB DIV 3 18 24 45 62 65 66 24 18 32 22 24 6 700-850 TADV 2 2 0 -4 0 4 1 -2 4 -2 0 -2 6 LAND (KM) 212 235 363 341 339 144 68 42 -122 4 44 98 137 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.3 14.4 14.7 14.9 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.5 19.0 19.0 19.3 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 70.8 72.8 74.9 76.8 78.7 82.0 85.2 87.8 89.8 91.2 92.4 93.4 94.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 20 19 19 17 16 15 12 9 6 5 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 45 38 70 83 54 36 54 68 42 21 12 26 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. -5. -4. -6. -6. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 21. 31. 37. 43. 45. 50. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 70.8 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 30.1 to 2.9 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 58.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.37 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.4 to -3.0 0.31 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.86 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.4 -29.7 to 181.5 0.28 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 160.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.78 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.7 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 16.3% 12.2% 7.7% 6.5% 12.6% 16.3% 34.4% Logistic: 1.9% 8.9% 3.9% 1.3% 1.1% 4.1% 9.2% 34.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.4% Consensus: 2.1% 8.6% 5.4% 3.0% 2.5% 5.6% 8.5% 23.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/20/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 37 45 51 61 39 36 38 43 43 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 44 50 60 38 35 37 42 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 45 55 33 30 32 37 37 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 37 47 25 22 24 29 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT