* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 54 61 65 72 75 79 83 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 34 37 45 54 61 45 33 37 41 45 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 30 32 35 40 47 40 31 36 41 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 14 12 12 8 3 7 9 9 11 9 18 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -1 0 7 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 360 358 341 339 1 2 24 347 8 281 294 272 270 SST (C) 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.7 30.0 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 147 149 148 150 157 165 170 167 164 163 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 160 156 154 155 154 154 159 163 162 156 151 146 145 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 52 54 57 60 61 66 68 75 74 77 76 76 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 11 10 10 10 9 8 9 8 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 65 59 63 74 68 56 31 37 13 24 25 32 50 200 MB DIV 1 7 20 26 44 80 43 45 34 27 35 28 11 700-850 TADV 0 6 2 -1 -3 4 -3 0 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 237 198 244 370 345 270 44 127 -95 -43 77 128 132 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.6 15.3 16.2 17.1 18.0 18.7 19.3 19.6 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 69.0 71.0 73.0 75.0 76.9 80.7 84.2 87.0 89.1 90.8 92.3 93.3 93.9 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 18 16 13 10 8 7 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 69 41 39 75 80 56 44 63 85 51 27 27 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 31. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 42. 45. 49. 53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 69.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.62 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 60.8 0.0 to 156.2 0.39 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.4 to -3.0 0.35 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.87 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.6 -29.7 to 181.5 0.23 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 178.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 15.4% 11.5% 7.3% 6.0% 12.2% 15.8% 27.3% Logistic: 4.4% 12.8% 6.3% 3.1% 2.1% 9.9% 16.0% 45.8% Bayesian: 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.5% Consensus: 2.9% 9.8% 6.2% 3.5% 2.7% 7.4% 10.6% 24.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 32 34 37 45 54 61 45 33 37 41 45 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 36 44 53 60 44 32 36 40 44 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 31 39 48 55 39 27 31 35 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 40 47 31 19 23 27 31 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT