* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 41 48 57 64 72 73 78 81 84 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 41 48 57 64 72 61 38 35 38 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 38 39 43 48 54 61 58 37 30 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 23 20 13 12 6 4 6 8 9 9 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 -2 3 9 0 0 -1 0 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 7 359 1 354 329 344 350 9 8 20 300 309 276 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.8 29.6 30.2 30.0 30.0 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 153 150 147 148 148 151 163 172 169 169 164 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 158 159 156 152 154 152 152 162 168 159 158 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 14 14 12 12 10 10 9 10 9 10 9 700-500 MB RH 47 49 52 54 57 62 70 72 77 76 77 76 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 12 9 9 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 57 69 69 60 59 68 66 42 43 9 28 23 32 200 MB DIV 2 -8 -5 3 27 64 78 65 44 12 22 48 49 700-850 TADV 1 -2 -1 4 2 -2 7 0 -3 -1 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 350 342 266 227 210 366 365 81 123 -31 -116 0 79 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.8 16.9 17.6 18.0 18.6 19.2 LONG(DEG W) 65.0 66.8 68.5 70.4 72.3 76.2 79.8 83.1 86.1 88.5 90.3 91.8 93.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 18 18 18 18 17 16 14 10 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 36 55 78 50 36 76 57 41 58 89 37 48 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -8. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 6. 14. 22. 29. 37. 38. 43. 46. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 65.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 30.1 to 2.9 0.46 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.06 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.14 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 253.0 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 9.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.1% 10.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 9.6% 12.6% 20.6% Logistic: 1.4% 4.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.0% 2.9% 6.3% 38.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 2.5% 16.1% Consensus: 1.2% 5.2% 3.1% 0.3% 0.0% 4.2% 7.1% 25.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 41 48 57 64 72 61 38 35 38 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 39 46 55 62 70 59 36 33 36 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 35 42 51 58 66 55 32 29 32 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 44 51 59 48 25 22 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT