* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/19/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 47 52 61 64 70 74 80 81 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 38 40 47 52 61 64 70 57 37 41 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 37 38 41 45 49 54 59 53 35 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 23 21 14 12 3 7 9 11 3 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 0 0 0 9 2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 9 1 359 3 360 335 311 350 7 16 291 303 260 SST (C) 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.2 29.7 29.9 29.8 29.8 POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 153 153 150 148 148 149 157 165 168 165 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 159 159 158 155 153 151 150 156 161 160 155 153 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.4 -52.4 -53.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 12 14 13 11 11 9 9 8 12 10 12 700-500 MB RH 48 48 50 52 55 62 66 71 76 75 73 71 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 12 10 12 9 10 8 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 66 64 71 70 64 70 64 50 43 24 15 14 35 200 MB DIV 31 7 -9 -7 7 23 63 66 66 8 11 25 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 -3 -1 3 1 3 4 -2 0 4 -1 0 LAND (KM) 333 366 352 273 242 348 317 219 42 148 -52 -23 100 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.2 18.3 19.1 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 63.2 65.0 66.8 68.6 70.4 74.1 77.8 81.2 84.3 86.8 88.7 90.5 92.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 18 18 18 18 18 17 16 14 12 10 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 46 39 61 79 55 66 70 43 44 61 89 53 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 3.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 30. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -3. -7. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 12. 17. 26. 29. 35. 39. 45. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 63.2 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.41 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.20 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.7 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 252.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.9% 10.2% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% Logistic: 1.2% 4.0% 1.6% 0.7% 0.0% 2.4% 4.8% 30.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.8% 4.1% Consensus: 1.1% 4.9% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.9% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/19/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 38 40 47 52 61 64 70 57 37 41 18HR AGO 35 34 35 36 38 45 50 59 62 68 55 35 39 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 34 41 46 55 58 64 51 31 35 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 39 48 51 57 44 24 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT