* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 61 65 69 74 76 82 84 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 46 53 61 65 69 61 53 36 35 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 39 41 46 51 56 62 57 56 36 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 21 19 9 4 2 3 9 8 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -5 -3 0 0 4 7 1 0 0 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 16 13 2 357 360 318 346 302 17 12 27 301 294 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 29.6 30.2 30.0 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 151 151 151 147 148 149 150 163 172 169 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 161 157 157 157 158 153 152 152 151 162 169 160 156 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 14 12 11 9 9 8 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 45 42 44 48 50 57 61 69 73 78 74 75 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 7 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 60 58 60 69 60 60 60 73 36 38 9 25 28 200 MB DIV 29 14 -4 -15 -15 30 73 88 51 46 2 16 42 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -3 -2 2 -5 7 0 3 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 289 305 337 292 217 250 357 300 16 48 -42 -109 47 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.4 16.2 17.1 18.1 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 62.1 63.9 65.6 67.4 69.2 73.1 76.9 80.4 83.6 86.3 88.6 90.3 91.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 19 17 17 15 13 11 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 53 40 35 66 63 40 77 55 22 36 91 37 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 30. 34. 39. 41. 47. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.3 62.1 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 30.1 to 2.9 0.45 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 51.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.33 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.4 to -3.0 0.14 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.8 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -29.7 to 181.5 0.15 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 281.4 961.4 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 22.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.78 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 15.5% 11.7% 8.0% 0.0% 11.8% 13.6% 18.5% Logistic: 6.1% 11.8% 6.2% 5.6% 4.6% 12.3% 15.0% 39.7% Bayesian: 0.4% 8.1% 3.3% 1.9% 0.2% 1.3% 1.2% 2.4% Consensus: 4.0% 11.8% 7.1% 5.2% 1.6% 8.5% 9.9% 20.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 46 53 61 65 69 61 53 36 35 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 50 58 62 66 58 50 33 32 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 44 52 56 60 52 44 27 26 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 35 43 47 51 43 35 18 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT