* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 45 50 59 66 72 70 74 76 79 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 42 45 50 59 66 72 67 71 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 39 41 45 49 55 60 60 65 41 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 17 15 14 21 16 12 4 4 9 14 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -1 -2 0 -1 7 1 -3 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 17 19 20 358 351 347 337 280 313 336 352 352 356 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.4 30.0 30.2 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 149 151 151 147 148 148 149 160 170 170 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 155 157 158 154 154 153 152 161 166 162 157 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.3 -52.6 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 12 12 13 11 10 8 10 8 10 8 700-500 MB RH 49 47 45 47 48 56 62 69 72 77 77 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 14 15 13 15 16 17 11 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 51 63 58 55 64 58 64 79 55 44 25 31 30 200 MB DIV 18 45 32 -1 -8 14 29 56 68 88 47 43 55 700-850 TADV -1 -4 -3 0 -2 1 0 -3 1 -6 -5 2 2 LAND (KM) 256 267 277 316 284 168 333 381 102 15 24 -156 -118 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.1 14.5 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.2 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 60.3 62.0 63.8 65.5 67.3 71.1 75.0 78.7 82.3 85.4 88.1 89.8 90.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 19 18 18 16 15 11 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 63 51 39 31 58 34 56 46 35 77 49 38 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 5.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -2. -1. -9. -10. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 15. 24. 31. 37. 35. 39. 41. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 60.3 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.7 30.1 to 2.9 0.49 1.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 48.4 0.0 to 156.2 0.31 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.58 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.5 28.4 to 139.6 0.85 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -29.7 to 181.5 0.22 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 275.2 961.4 to -67.1 0.67 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 16.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.84 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.2% 11.3% 7.5% 5.9% 11.1% 11.9% 17.5% Logistic: 3.3% 9.1% 4.3% 2.9% 1.9% 6.8% 7.5% 22.9% Bayesian: 0.3% 3.8% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% Consensus: 2.9% 9.4% 5.9% 3.6% 2.6% 6.0% 6.5% 13.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 42 45 50 59 66 72 67 71 42 32 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 47 56 63 69 64 68 39 29 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 51 58 64 59 63 34 24 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 42 49 55 50 54 25 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT