* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HARVEY AL092017 08/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 45 52 56 66 69 72 74 76 80 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 43 45 52 56 66 69 72 68 70 47 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 40 42 44 49 53 58 64 70 61 73 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 15 16 15 19 15 8 4 9 12 21 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 2 1 -1 -1 3 8 3 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 43 23 19 21 22 2 6 344 316 346 348 8 10 SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.9 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 29.3 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 151 153 148 149 148 149 158 167 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 156 158 158 158 157 160 154 155 152 152 158 164 168 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -53.4 -52.7 -53.3 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 13 12 14 11 11 9 10 8 11 700-500 MB RH 48 47 48 47 45 52 56 63 68 74 77 76 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 13 12 12 9 11 9 8 7 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 48 52 58 68 67 72 67 75 78 56 56 37 35 200 MB DIV 4 15 23 28 5 -16 5 31 58 41 69 31 33 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 -2 0 0 2 5 4 9 3 0 3 LAND (KM) 537 393 292 295 322 328 212 357 363 139 1 78 -137 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.6 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 56.6 58.3 59.9 61.6 63.3 66.9 70.6 74.5 78.4 81.9 84.9 87.4 89.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 18 16 14 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 62 59 47 57 45 57 46 63 51 33 24 66 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -6. -10. -11. -14. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 17. 21. 31. 34. 37. 39. 41. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 56.6 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.3 30.1 to 2.9 0.58 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 54.0 0.0 to 156.2 0.35 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.4 to -3.0 0.20 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.2 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.21 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 254.8 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 5.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.2 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 16.2% 12.0% 8.0% 6.2% 11.6% 13.3% 19.8% Logistic: 3.3% 8.2% 3.7% 1.8% 0.8% 5.2% 11.9% 41.9% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.7% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 1.0% 2.5% Consensus: 3.1% 9.4% 5.6% 3.3% 2.4% 5.7% 8.8% 21.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 HARVEY 08/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 43 45 52 56 66 69 72 68 70 47 18HR AGO 35 34 37 39 41 48 52 62 65 68 64 66 43 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 35 42 46 56 59 62 58 60 37 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 27 34 38 48 51 54 50 52 29 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT