* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092017 08/17/17 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 72 75 76 79 79 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 72 75 76 79 61 V (KT) LGEM 35 39 43 47 50 56 61 66 71 75 78 82 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 12 15 16 14 17 11 8 6 9 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -1 0 0 1 0 4 4 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 43 32 20 13 17 360 359 331 350 311 339 348 4 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 29.6 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 151 152 152 152 151 151 147 149 149 154 163 172 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 159 158 158 158 158 154 155 153 155 162 170 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 11 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 50 47 47 47 46 48 54 59 64 71 73 79 75 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 6 6 4 850 MB ENV VOR 43 47 47 51 62 63 68 63 64 69 25 37 14 200 MB DIV 0 2 11 8 14 9 -5 12 49 70 30 58 8 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -2 -1 -2 2 -1 5 2 7 6 5 5 LAND (KM) 696 532 382 277 274 343 247 227 348 289 34 84 -74 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.1 13.2 13.6 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 55.0 56.6 58.3 60.0 61.7 65.1 68.8 72.7 76.7 80.5 83.8 86.6 88.9 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 17 15 13 11 HEAT CONTENT 41 62 60 63 55 35 74 37 81 58 43 38 87 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 7.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. -12. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 20. 27. 32. 37. 40. 41. 44. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.0 55.0 ** 2017 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092017 NINE 08/17/17 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.9 0.59 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 56.2 0.0 to 156.2 0.36 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.4 to -3.0 0.24 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 35.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.35 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.6 28.4 to 139.6 0.84 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.0 -29.7 to 181.5 0.17 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 250.6 961.4 to -67.1 0.69 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 14.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.86 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 5.1%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 5.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 6.0%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 17.3% 12.9% 8.4% 6.6% 12.4% 15.0% 20.7% Logistic: 4.0% 10.9% 5.1% 2.2% 1.2% 7.0% 16.3% 47.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.7% 0.9% Consensus: 3.8% 9.9% 6.1% 3.6% 2.6% 6.5% 10.7% 22.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092017 NINE 08/17/17 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092017 NINE 08/17/2017 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 42 46 49 55 62 67 72 75 76 79 61 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 44 50 57 62 67 70 71 74 56 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 38 44 51 56 61 64 65 68 50 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 34 41 46 51 54 55 58 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT