* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/06/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 43 40 34 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 43 40 34 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 47 45 44 43 40 37 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 15 13 18 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 -6 -3 -4 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 112 81 63 46 42 52 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.3 24.9 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 107 106 104 103 101 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 87 86 84 83 82 82 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 5 5 3 3 6 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 38 39 42 44 48 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 21 19 16 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 -14 -18 -12 -25 -12 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -36 -30 -18 -24 -28 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 2 -1 4 4 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 163 153 146 134 121 92 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 39.5 39.5 39.6 39.7 40.0 40.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 71.7 72.0 72.3 72.4 72.5 72.3 71.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 1 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -15. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -15. -17. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -24. -28. -31. -33. -36. -39. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 39.5 71.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/06/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.34 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.00 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.05 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 83.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 339.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.60 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/06/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/06/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 47 45 43 40 34 26 22 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 42 36 28 24 21 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 41 35 27 23 20 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 37 31 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT