* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 53 50 48 46 43 39 36 37 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 41 35 29 23 10 4 10 13 21 28 28 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 -4 -4 -5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 208 199 193 188 135 46 46 29 12 296 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 26.5 25.9 25.6 25.2 24.1 22.3 20.8 20.5 19.6 18.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 117 110 107 103 95 85 80 81 78 77 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 94 89 87 83 78 73 70 72 71 70 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -52.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 1 1 5 3 5 4 4 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 50 49 46 45 51 56 57 57 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 29 26 25 25 23 20 17 14 9 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 27 8 -5 9 5 -21 -42 -3 2 18 164 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 34 21 10 20 2 -18 -13 -20 -16 25 49 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 12 1 -1 0 -3 1 5 9 28 55 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 404 350 298 255 212 179 106 164 213 147 51 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 38.8 39.1 39.4 39.6 40.1 40.9 41.3 41.7 42.8 44.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 69.0 69.5 69.9 70.3 70.0 69.7 68.5 66.4 63.9 61.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 10 12 13 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 5 CX,CY: 1/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -25. -32. -29. -30. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -22. -31. -41. -52. -52. -55. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.4 68.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.05 0.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 2.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.47 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.20 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.02 0.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 84.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.16 0.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 278.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.0% 6.9% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 2.6% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 53 50 48 45 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 52 50 47 40 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 48 41 32 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 38 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT