* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 55 52 50 48 44 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 55 52 50 48 44 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 56 54 52 49 48 47 46 43 40 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 47 43 36 26 19 4 9 7 13 14 16 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -5 -5 -2 -3 -1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 213 205 200 199 173 332 36 25 37 16 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 27.9 27.4 27.1 26.6 25.4 23.6 23.3 23.3 23.1 20.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 133 126 123 116 106 93 91 92 93 83 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 101 98 92 86 78 76 78 80 74 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.4 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -53.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 2 1 5 4 6 5 5 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 57 57 53 50 50 53 54 55 59 64 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 28 27 26 24 22 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 36 15 -1 3 -16 -36 -49 -26 -26 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 37 27 7 23 -1 -16 -41 -31 -10 36 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 10 6 0 -2 1 -2 -2 -1 3 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 515 456 398 347 298 275 242 281 332 239 212 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 37.3 37.8 38.2 38.5 38.8 39.3 40.0 40.3 40.6 41.5 43.1 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.4 68.8 69.1 69.6 70.0 69.6 68.6 67.6 66.5 64.4 61.4 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 3 4 5 4 7 11 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 19 9 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -2. -3. -6. -10. -15. -20. -26. -31. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -16. -23. -31. -41. -49. -51. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.3 68.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.08 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.46 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 24.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.11 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 87.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.12 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 240.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 55 52 50 48 44 37 29 19 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 54 52 50 46 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 49 45 38 30 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 46 42 35 27 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT