* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/05/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 54 50 47 43 35 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 54 50 47 43 35 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 54 51 46 46 46 45 43 39 38 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 50 45 41 36 26 7 4 14 17 23 22 19 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 1 8 SHEAR DIR 235 227 211 202 200 198 315 29 46 45 32 355 284 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.1 25.2 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.4 22.0 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 133 129 125 111 103 98 95 95 94 86 79 ADJ. POT. INT. 105 107 105 102 98 88 83 81 80 81 80 75 70 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -53.4 -53.2 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 2 2 2 5 4 6 5 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 53 56 59 57 52 51 47 48 49 53 54 53 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 30 30 29 27 25 23 21 17 14 9 11 15 850 MB ENV VOR 5 18 42 18 2 17 -23 -36 -19 -22 31 87 69 200 MB DIV 46 37 26 22 3 -2 -15 -28 -33 -17 20 12 6 700-850 TADV 7 6 8 5 0 0 -1 -2 0 4 17 56 27 LAND (KM) 529 489 449 401 354 296 264 251 295 312 258 267 238 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.5 37.8 38.1 38.4 39.0 39.4 39.7 40.0 40.7 41.7 42.6 43.6 LONG(DEG W) 68.3 68.5 68.8 69.2 69.6 69.7 69.6 69.0 67.7 65.9 63.5 61.3 59.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 3 2 2 4 6 9 10 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 26 25 18 10 7 52 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -4. -8. -12. -17. -23. -29. -28. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -6. -10. -13. -17. -25. -34. -45. -55. -56. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.2 68.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.84 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.48 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.24 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.14 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 71.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 228.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/05/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 55 54 50 47 43 35 26 15 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 55 51 48 44 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 51 48 44 36 27 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 43 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT