* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 58 57 58 52 48 43 35 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 58 57 58 52 48 43 35 28 21 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 61 61 59 56 50 46 48 48 46 43 41 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 48 48 42 38 32 16 5 13 16 14 13 19 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 1 -1 -7 -3 -5 -2 -4 -2 -3 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 233 233 224 205 202 219 221 358 27 21 39 42 49 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.2 26.6 25.7 24.3 23.5 23.2 22.7 23.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 138 132 127 123 115 108 98 93 90 89 99 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 108 103 100 97 91 87 81 78 75 76 85 82 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 2 1 5 4 6 5 7 5 4 700-500 MB RH 54 52 54 54 55 51 50 50 50 52 52 52 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 31 32 33 28 23 22 20 19 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 2 -3 14 37 18 2 -9 -31 -48 -25 -30 17 44 200 MB DIV 57 52 24 23 26 32 9 -15 -34 -28 -20 1 31 700-850 TADV 2 7 6 8 0 0 0 0 1 3 14 7 25 LAND (KM) 482 441 401 368 335 298 279 269 310 304 255 309 403 LAT (DEG N) 37.2 37.6 37.9 38.2 38.5 38.8 39.2 39.7 40.3 40.8 41.2 41.7 42.4 LONG(DEG W) 69.3 69.5 69.6 69.7 69.8 70.0 69.7 68.6 67.2 66.1 65.5 62.6 58.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 2 4 5 6 4 7 14 17 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 21 14 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. -2. -8. -10. -14. -16. -19. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -2. -8. -12. -17. -25. -32. -39. -44. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 37.2 69.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 41.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 19.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.13 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.14 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 61.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 236.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 58 57 58 52 48 43 35 28 21 16 DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 57 58 52 48 43 35 28 21 16 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 56 50 46 41 33 26 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 45 41 36 28 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT