* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 52 52 50 45 42 35 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 52 52 50 45 42 35 28 20 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 49 45 43 43 46 46 43 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 49 51 45 37 34 23 13 3 14 16 19 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 -4 -2 -3 SHEAR DIR 239 231 227 215 210 211 209 267 15 38 31 37 81 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.4 26.4 25.6 24.8 23.8 22.5 23.2 23.5 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 136 133 131 125 114 106 100 95 88 93 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 106 104 102 98 90 85 82 79 76 80 81 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 5 4 6 4 4 3 700-500 MB RH 56 55 55 54 55 53 51 46 46 48 53 56 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 31 33 34 30 27 25 23 20 18 14 12 850 MB ENV VOR 5 0 5 17 38 23 14 -22 -36 -25 -15 5 53 200 MB DIV 35 69 61 11 11 20 21 -36 -32 -35 -38 -6 2 700-850 TADV 0 2 4 2 4 0 -1 -1 0 1 6 15 5 LAND (KM) 468 445 416 389 363 323 288 285 271 276 300 243 332 LAT (DEG N) 37.0 37.4 37.7 37.9 38.0 38.4 38.9 39.2 39.5 40.0 40.9 41.5 42.0 LONG(DEG W) 70.0 69.8 69.7 70.0 70.3 70.3 70.0 69.6 69.0 68.0 66.5 64.3 61.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 4 6 8 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 28 35 33 38 49 18 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 70/ 11 CX,CY: 10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -13. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -5. -9. -13. -17. -22. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -5. -10. -13. -20. -27. -35. -43. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 37.0 70.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.83 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.30 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.22 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 218.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.72 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 52 52 52 50 45 42 35 28 20 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 53 53 53 51 46 43 36 29 21 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 51 49 44 41 34 27 19 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 43 38 35 28 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT