* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 57 56 53 46 42 38 30 23 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 57 56 53 46 42 38 30 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 57 55 50 46 46 50 51 48 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP SHEAR (KT) 50 50 51 44 35 26 13 6 8 17 14 20 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 1 -4 -5 -5 -6 -8 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 239 234 229 226 219 210 228 225 24 44 24 36 49 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.2 24.9 23.3 22.5 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 143 141 140 137 131 125 120 113 101 92 89 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 113 110 108 106 102 98 95 90 83 77 77 84 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -53.7 -53.7 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 2 1 1 2 2 5 4 6 5 7 4 700-500 MB RH 55 56 56 55 55 54 47 42 42 44 50 54 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 31 32 30 26 23 21 19 17 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -1 3 2 17 19 0 -7 -16 -40 -13 1 19 200 MB DIV 30 41 84 41 9 40 27 -16 -30 -51 -15 -27 -25 700-850 TADV 2 -1 5 5 1 -1 -1 0 -1 1 3 6 8 LAND (KM) 388 391 399 378 358 320 269 251 238 230 199 274 279 LAT (DEG N) 36.6 36.9 37.3 37.5 37.6 38.0 38.4 38.7 39.1 39.6 40.2 40.7 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 71.3 71.0 70.7 70.8 71.0 71.2 71.6 71.5 70.7 70.0 69.1 67.4 64.5 STM SPEED (KT) 7 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 69 68 64 73 75 58 17 9 46 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 590 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 2. -2. -6. -10. -13. -16. -20. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -14. -18. -22. -30. -37. -44. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.6 71.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 69.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.45 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.95 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.49 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.31 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.20 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 47.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 234.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.71 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 57 57 56 53 46 42 38 30 23 16 DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 58 57 54 47 43 39 31 24 17 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 55 52 45 41 37 29 22 15 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 46 39 35 31 23 16 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT