* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 55 55 53 50 44 39 36 31 24 18 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 58 55 55 53 50 44 39 36 31 24 18 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 56 54 50 45 44 47 50 49 45 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 49 50 50 48 44 31 25 9 5 11 12 22 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -1 0 -1 -5 -5 -6 -7 -6 -2 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 239 237 234 226 226 222 213 205 223 29 47 28 37 SST (C) 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.8 27.4 26.6 25.2 24.3 22.6 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 142 140 140 135 130 125 117 103 97 88 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 113 112 109 109 105 101 98 93 83 80 76 75 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.6 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.6 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 4 7 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 59 58 59 55 49 44 44 47 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 31 30 27 25 22 21 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -23 0 8 4 26 12 13 -11 -41 -45 -42 -42 200 MB DIV 42 39 62 63 40 23 11 15 -29 -19 -15 -41 -21 700-850 TADV 6 -1 0 0 3 0 -1 -4 -1 -1 0 4 17 LAND (KM) 287 349 391 381 371 322 281 258 237 185 175 166 287 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.6 36.8 37.0 37.2 37.7 37.9 38.3 38.9 39.6 40.0 40.5 41.1 LONG(DEG W) 72.6 71.9 71.1 71.1 71.1 71.4 71.8 71.8 71.3 70.8 70.4 69.2 66.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 4 2 3 2 2 3 4 3 4 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 48 54 71 70 68 58 34 20 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -15. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -11. -15. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -5. -7. -10. -16. -21. -24. -29. -36. -42. -49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.3 72.6 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 62.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.40 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 28.4 to 139.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 48.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 238.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 55 55 53 50 44 39 36 31 24 18 DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 56 54 51 45 40 37 32 25 19 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 56 54 51 45 40 37 32 25 19 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 39 34 31 26 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT