* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 60 58 57 58 54 48 44 37 27 21 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 61 60 58 57 58 54 48 44 37 27 21 DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 62 62 61 60 56 50 47 47 48 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 43 51 54 54 50 37 25 15 10 10 7 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -5 -3 -1 -5 -5 -2 -5 -5 -4 -2 -1 SHEAR DIR 238 237 236 233 226 231 216 248 222 322 16 17 33 SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.1 24.9 23.9 23.0 23.3 POT. INT. (KT) 140 138 138 138 137 129 124 119 112 101 95 90 92 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 111 109 107 100 97 94 89 82 79 76 77 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 1 1 2 0 2 2 5 3 6 5 7 700-500 MB RH 47 50 53 54 53 51 52 48 46 47 48 50 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 27 27 30 34 31 28 25 22 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -16 -23 -9 -2 14 15 7 4 -25 -55 -58 -59 200 MB DIV 71 48 44 39 44 7 31 22 -10 -22 -35 -14 -26 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 3 1 7 LAND (KM) 159 245 311 318 329 282 258 248 210 192 200 241 334 LAT (DEG N) 36.0 36.5 37.0 37.3 37.6 38.0 38.3 38.7 39.2 39.7 40.0 40.3 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 74.1 73.1 72.0 71.7 71.4 71.7 71.8 71.6 71.2 70.5 69.6 68.2 66.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 7 4 3 2 1 3 3 3 5 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 20 41 44 52 62 34 20 8 41 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -19. -19. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 11. 10. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 3. -1. -5. -10. -16. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 0. -2. -3. -2. -6. -12. -16. -23. -33. -39. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.0 74.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 50.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.8 to -3.1 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.5 28.4 to 139.1 0.21 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 60.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 277.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 60 58 57 58 54 48 44 37 27 21 DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 58 56 55 56 52 46 42 35 25 19 DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 54 53 54 50 44 40 33 23 17 DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 50 46 40 36 29 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT