* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 57 56 55 58 57 51 48 43 35 27 22 V (KT) LAND 55 57 57 56 55 58 57 51 48 43 35 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 55 58 58 57 55 52 48 44 44 46 48 48 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 42 49 56 54 40 21 18 10 3 11 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 4 0 -6 -2 0 0 -3 -6 -4 -3 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 243 237 232 233 233 221 211 238 219 11 29 32 25 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.8 26.4 26.2 25.8 25.2 23.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 137 133 130 126 121 118 113 111 108 103 95 85 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 114 108 104 100 95 92 89 88 86 83 79 73 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -52.5 -52.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.6 1.4 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 3 3 1 1 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 3 700-500 MB RH 41 46 48 50 48 42 46 45 45 43 40 46 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 27 29 35 37 34 32 29 27 26 25 850 MB ENV VOR -3 2 -8 -14 0 11 23 0 0 -12 -20 -9 -2 200 MB DIV 50 85 56 44 32 38 16 9 1 -7 -9 -30 -41 700-850 TADV 13 -5 -11 4 2 4 0 0 0 -1 -1 3 6 LAND (KM) 36 130 226 230 235 220 221 215 200 176 159 158 135 LAT (DEG N) 35.9 36.4 36.9 37.3 37.7 38.3 38.6 38.9 39.1 39.4 39.7 40.2 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 75.5 74.3 73.2 72.8 72.5 72.3 72.1 72.0 71.8 71.6 71.2 70.4 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 14 11 7 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 3 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 3 1 25 20 20 15 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 18 CX,CY: 15/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -16. -18. -17. -18. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 9. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 1. 0. 3. 2. -4. -7. -12. -20. -28. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 35.9 75.5 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 48.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.09 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 37.5 to 2.9 999.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.37 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.23 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 68.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.31 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 319.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 57 56 55 58 57 51 48 43 35 27 22 18HR AGO 55 54 54 53 52 55 54 48 45 40 32 24 19 12HR AGO 55 52 51 50 49 52 51 45 42 37 29 21 16 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 47 46 40 37 32 24 16 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT