* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 52 56 53 47 46 42 36 27 21 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 50 50 53 51 45 44 40 34 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 50 43 48 47 46 46 43 39 40 43 47 46 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 42 42 43 49 56 42 21 22 13 6 13 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 2 1 -6 0 3 -6 -5 -6 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 244 244 236 235 232 219 234 240 231 238 353 29 2 SST (C) 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.6 27.5 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 25.8 23.9 22.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 141 136 131 129 119 112 111 112 109 95 86 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 121 113 107 104 94 89 87 90 88 79 73 71 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 -52.8 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.5 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 3 2 1 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 4 700-500 MB RH 42 42 45 48 50 45 46 46 43 45 44 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 27 28 27 34 35 33 33 30 29 26 26 850 MB ENV VOR -1 -2 1 -5 -18 10 5 3 0 -9 -27 -44 -24 200 MB DIV 50 54 82 61 47 77 2 28 20 -20 -19 -51 -9 700-850 TADV 22 10 -6 -2 0 3 -3 0 0 0 0 6 1 LAND (KM) -34 4 125 184 216 209 148 136 183 176 121 103 135 LAT (DEG N) 35.0 35.8 36.6 37.1 37.6 38.5 38.8 38.9 38.9 39.4 40.3 40.8 40.8 LONG(DEG W) 77.3 75.8 74.4 73.6 72.8 72.3 72.9 73.0 72.4 71.6 70.9 70.1 69.3 STM SPEED (KT) 17 14 11 8 7 3 2 1 3 4 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 49 8 6 12 16 13 2 1 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -15. -18. -19. -20. -21. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 7. 8. 6. 5. 1. -1. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 6. 3. -3. -4. -8. -14. -23. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 35.0 77.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 46.2 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 0.0 to 155.1 0.12 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.5 to 2.9 0.75 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.73 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.40 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.33 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 59.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 327.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.62 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 50 50 50 53 51 45 44 40 34 25 19 18HR AGO 50 49 50 50 50 53 51 45 44 40 34 25 19 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 46 49 47 41 40 36 30 21 15 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 40 43 41 35 34 30 24 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT