* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/03/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 49 50 53 52 47 44 39 33 25 16 V (KT) LAND 45 39 36 41 42 45 44 39 35 31 25 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 39 35 39 38 38 37 34 33 35 38 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 36 40 42 39 46 52 38 24 19 10 7 20 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -6 -1 5 2 -5 -3 -3 -2 -5 -1 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 231 244 245 233 231 220 226 228 233 234 328 24 49 SST (C) 29.3 28.8 28.2 28.1 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.4 25.8 23.2 22.0 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 151 141 139 133 129 121 116 114 110 91 82 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 132 120 116 110 102 95 91 91 90 77 69 70 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.3 -51.8 -51.6 -51.7 -52.8 -52.2 -53.1 -53.3 -54.2 -53.6 -53.8 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 3 2 4 2 1 1 0 4 2 5 3 6 700-500 MB RH 50 45 43 45 47 50 48 50 48 47 47 47 51 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 29 29 29 33 36 35 34 31 29 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 40 0 7 4 -3 0 5 20 -13 0 -34 -54 -31 200 MB DIV 79 52 50 79 87 42 22 24 7 3 -12 -21 -40 700-850 TADV 10 26 19 -1 -6 -7 1 0 0 0 0 3 -2 LAND (KM) -23 -30 -9 92 195 252 226 194 196 180 150 141 158 LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.7 35.7 36.3 36.9 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.8 39.4 40.4 40.8 40.6 LONG(DEG W) 79.3 77.6 76.0 74.8 73.6 72.3 72.3 72.5 72.3 71.5 69.9 69.2 69.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 14 11 9 4 2 1 3 6 6 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 43 46 3 6 15 25 17 11 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 19 CX,CY: 15/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 41.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 13. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 7. 5. 3. 0. -4. -5. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 2. -1. -6. -12. -20. -29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 33.7 79.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 40.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 22.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.15 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.45 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.46 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.95 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 279.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/03/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 36 41 42 45 44 39 35 31 25 17 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 41 46 47 50 49 44 40 36 30 22 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 46 47 50 49 44 40 36 30 22 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 39 38 33 29 25 19 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT