* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 44 45 45 48 47 44 42 41 31 22 V (KT) LAND 45 39 35 32 37 37 40 39 36 34 33 23 DIS V (KT) LGEM 45 38 34 32 35 34 33 33 31 31 34 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 38 39 40 40 54 43 30 15 12 6 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -3 0 3 -8 0 0 0 -7 -5 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 229 231 244 244 233 229 221 206 206 243 213 25 68 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 28.9 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.1 25.7 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 158 161 152 141 139 131 128 122 119 118 111 106 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 133 121 116 106 100 95 93 94 89 84 85 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.4 -52.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.4 -53.2 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 3 2 4 1 2 1 3 2 6 3 7 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 44 45 51 50 48 47 43 43 38 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 28 29 29 29 34 37 34 33 32 26 23 850 MB ENV VOR 54 38 3 7 3 -7 9 6 16 3 -7 -30 -31 200 MB DIV 96 88 64 54 80 36 49 4 32 21 -4 -21 -34 700-850 TADV 22 10 24 18 -7 -1 3 0 -2 0 0 0 6 LAND (KM) -57 -31 -25 -11 93 232 256 232 198 205 210 193 176 LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.6 34.6 35.4 36.2 37.2 37.8 38.1 38.3 38.6 39.2 39.4 39.4 LONG(DEG W) 81.3 79.5 77.7 76.2 74.8 72.9 72.2 72.3 72.6 72.3 71.2 71.1 71.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 16 14 12 7 3 2 1 4 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 36 44 47 63 7 21 25 19 13 10 41 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 50/ 17 CX,CY: 13/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -16. -21. -23. -24. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 6. 9. 6. 3. 1. -7. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 3. 2. -1. -3. -4. -14. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 32.5 81.3 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.25 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.66 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.8 to -3.1 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.49 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.52 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 270.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.67 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.3% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 39 35 32 37 37 40 39 36 34 33 23 DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 40 37 42 42 45 44 41 39 38 28 DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 43 43 46 45 42 40 39 29 DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 40 40 43 42 39 37 36 26 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT