* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 43 45 46 50 49 54 50 47 44 40 29 V (KT) LAND 45 37 34 31 31 38 37 42 38 36 32 28 17 V (KT) LGEM 45 37 33 31 33 34 34 33 31 31 33 35 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 36 36 39 43 52 39 20 14 7 5 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -2 -2 4 -6 -2 0 -3 -3 -5 -1 SHEAR DIR 227 217 224 237 239 232 225 209 208 220 192 103 56 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.0 28.3 28.0 28.0 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 157 158 159 154 143 136 134 130 123 120 117 114 110 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 141 142 137 123 113 106 101 96 94 92 90 87 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.1 -50.9 -51.4 -51.7 -51.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.9 1.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 7 6 3 2 3 1 1 0 4 3 5 3 700-500 MB RH 59 53 48 43 41 50 52 49 48 42 42 35 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 29 30 32 33 40 37 35 33 31 26 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 46 3 -1 -1 -4 5 21 8 22 -18 -19 200 MB DIV 65 86 96 65 57 64 26 45 35 17 -13 -28 -16 700-850 TADV 28 23 9 25 15 -7 -5 0 -1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) -131 -53 -50 -28 -2 232 289 281 247 222 240 221 193 LAT (DEG N) 31.4 32.5 33.6 34.5 35.4 36.6 37.4 37.9 38.1 38.4 38.7 38.9 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 82.8 81.2 79.7 77.8 76.0 73.2 72.0 71.8 72.1 72.2 71.8 71.8 72.1 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 18 15 9 4 2 2 2 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 0 38 43 42 59 30 36 35 22 15 9 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 16 CX,CY: 10/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -19. -22. -23. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -12. -11. -11. -9. -7. -4. -1. 2. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 12. 8. 6. 2. -2. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -2. 0. 1. 5. 4. 9. 5. 2. -1. -5. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.4 82.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.30 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 36.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.80 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.71 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 45.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.64 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.57 999.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 284.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 3.5% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.1% 0.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 37 34 31 31 38 37 42 38 36 32 28 17 18HR AGO 45 44 41 38 38 45 44 49 45 43 39 35 24 12HR AGO 45 42 41 38 38 45 44 49 45 43 39 35 24 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 42 41 46 42 40 36 32 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT