* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 76 78 78 75 70 70 68 61 58 53 44 V (KT) LAND 70 52 41 36 33 32 27 27 25 19 15 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 52 41 35 32 35 36 38 37 35 36 38 41 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 13 19 29 34 43 52 42 21 20 10 6 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 2 1 -1 3 -5 -3 0 -6 -3 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 240 232 206 216 232 231 228 211 222 209 216 206 41 SST (C) 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.4 29.0 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.0 25.7 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 171 159 156 162 155 139 130 125 120 118 111 108 107 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 141 139 146 137 117 104 98 94 94 89 86 86 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.7 1.3 0.7 1.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 7 6 3 4 1 2 1 3 2 6 4 700-500 MB RH 64 61 52 49 43 44 50 46 45 47 46 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 29 28 30 35 36 34 33 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 44 41 58 47 8 7 -5 22 22 17 -10 -14 -18 200 MB DIV 62 66 89 92 60 63 41 55 -4 25 13 -11 -33 700-850 TADV 13 32 20 11 20 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) -18 -132 -79 -49 -31 135 232 227 205 194 190 197 237 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.5 34.5 36.3 37.2 37.7 38.1 38.5 39.2 39.4 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 84.0 82.8 81.7 79.8 77.9 74.3 72.9 72.6 72.7 72.5 71.8 71.0 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 19 18 12 5 2 2 4 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 12 0 34 40 42 8 15 12 10 9 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 5. 1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -14. -19. -21. -20. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 7. 8. 5. 3. 0. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 8. 5. 0. 0. -2. -9. -12. -17. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 30.2 84.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 25.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.17 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 37.5 to 2.9 0.64 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.72 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.8 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.40 0.6 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 398.0 960.3 to -67.1 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 17.8% 11.5% 10.6% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 6.0% 2.8% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 8.0% 4.8% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 52 41 36 33 32 27 27 25 19 15 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 58 53 50 49 44 44 42 36 32 17 17 12HR AGO 70 67 66 61 58 57 52 52 50 44 40 25 25 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 57 56 51 51 49 43 39 24 24 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT