* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/02/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 81 83 84 82 77 74 73 64 58 52 43 V (KT) LAND 70 65 49 40 35 30 28 25 24 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 70 77 51 40 35 30 35 36 36 34 34 35 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 13 13 18 30 39 50 49 33 23 14 5 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 1 0 0 0 -1 -6 -2 -6 -5 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 232 236 225 221 223 233 229 220 213 208 208 204 38 SST (C) 30.3 30.0 29.3 29.1 29.3 28.2 27.7 27.2 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.0 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 171 159 156 159 141 133 124 121 123 121 110 99 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 152 141 139 142 122 110 98 95 97 96 88 81 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.4 -52.7 -52.3 -53.0 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5 1.0 0.9 1.3 0.6 1.3 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 7 5 6 6 2 2 0 1 0 5 3 5 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 53 48 40 45 46 46 48 46 46 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 29 28 28 29 29 33 37 35 33 30 26 850 MB ENV VOR 41 34 41 53 38 10 -1 3 4 16 -4 -3 -37 200 MB DIV 76 57 73 92 70 58 45 26 8 24 13 -7 -38 700-850 TADV 8 14 27 26 8 16 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 76 -21 -146 -68 -76 -14 157 203 218 243 261 228 184 LAT (DEG N) 29.1 30.2 31.3 32.4 33.5 35.4 37.0 37.9 38.1 38.3 38.7 39.2 39.8 LONG(DEG W) 84.8 83.9 83.0 81.6 80.1 76.5 74.0 72.8 72.5 72.0 71.2 70.7 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 15 16 17 15 10 4 2 3 4 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 25 46 0 35 41 51 4 9 12 16 12 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 17.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 3. -1. -5. -9. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -20. -20. -18. -16. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 10. 6. 3. -1. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 13. 14. 12. 7. 4. 3. -6. -12. -18. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 29.1 84.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 8.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.42 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.79 3.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.8 to -3.1 0.61 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 70.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.81 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.47 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.43 1.2 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 332.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.61 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 18.6% 35.8% 23.5% 14.3% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.1% 10.9% 4.9% 1.7% 0.0% 0.5% 0.4% Bayesian: 16.9% 2.7% 4.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.9% 16.5% 10.9% 5.8% 3.5% 0.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/02/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 65 49 40 35 30 28 25 24 16 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 53 44 39 34 32 29 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 57 52 47 45 42 41 33 17 17 17 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 55 50 48 45 44 36 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT