* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 69 74 77 78 75 71 70 60 50 41 34 V (KT) LAND 60 64 59 46 38 32 32 28 27 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 60 65 70 48 39 32 34 35 34 31 29 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 19 16 20 36 47 52 42 21 20 9 0 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 -5 0 0 -3 1 0 -5 -5 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 255 248 252 234 224 236 228 219 207 218 204 206 127 SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.3 29.1 29.2 28.0 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.2 26.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 173 159 155 157 138 128 125 124 123 113 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 159 157 154 141 138 139 118 105 98 96 96 90 81 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.2 -50.7 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 7 5 6 4 4 1 1 1 4 3 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 65 63 58 47 47 52 53 53 52 48 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 26 29 29 28 28 30 34 30 26 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 34 31 37 40 50 4 2 -5 11 17 22 1 -3 200 MB DIV 70 79 67 90 97 50 64 61 48 37 18 -3 -3 700-850 TADV 20 17 21 22 26 32 0 -2 0 0 1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 188 84 -10 -115 -52 -19 65 196 248 272 268 234 200 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 29.1 30.1 31.2 32.2 34.1 36.3 37.7 38.2 38.5 38.6 39.1 39.9 LONG(DEG W) 85.4 84.6 83.9 82.7 81.5 78.3 75.1 73.0 72.0 71.5 71.3 70.8 70.0 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 13 15 15 17 14 8 3 2 2 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 38 25 14 26 34 46 2 7 17 18 16 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 35/ 12 CX,CY: 7/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -12. -18. -20. -21. -21. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 9. 3. -2. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 17. 18. 15. 11. 10. 0. -10. -19. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.0 85.4 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 28.8 to 2.9 0.50 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 0.0 to 155.1 0.18 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.62 2.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.67 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 60.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.97 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.51 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.7 28.4 to 139.1 0.55 1.5 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 200.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.5 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 11.6% 38.1% 22.0% 14.6% 9.7% 9.9% 0.0% Logistic: 8.1% 23.8% 12.7% 5.8% 0.0% 2.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 4.5% 4.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 22.2% 12.3% 6.9% 3.3% 4.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 64 59 46 38 32 32 28 27 17 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 54 41 33 27 27 23 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 43 35 29 29 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 42 36 36 32 31 21 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT