* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 65 69 76 78 77 77 67 57 48 39 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 54 43 33 38 37 37 26 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 55 58 62 56 44 33 38 40 39 35 32 31 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 14 20 18 32 37 42 45 27 24 20 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 0 -5 -1 -1 -2 4 -6 -5 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 287 261 243 247 237 227 237 228 200 210 201 183 124 SST (C) 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.0 29.3 29.4 28.6 28.1 27.7 27.3 27.1 27.3 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 172 173 173 171 158 162 147 137 130 125 122 123 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 160 158 150 140 145 127 111 104 100 96 96 102 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -50.9 -51.6 -51.4 -52.4 -52.8 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 1.4 1.3 1.6 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 6 4 5 3 3 1 1 1 4 3 700-500 MB RH 63 65 66 63 60 52 46 54 55 53 58 51 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 23 24 25 27 29 29 30 34 29 26 23 19 850 MB ENV VOR 24 33 32 37 46 49 0 3 22 32 38 16 19 200 MB DIV 56 69 73 61 74 76 53 77 48 36 52 7 0 700-850 TADV 17 18 14 20 28 6 10 -6 -11 -3 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 310 177 72 -31 -146 -41 50 215 230 223 258 275 282 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.1 29.2 30.3 31.3 33.3 35.1 36.3 37.1 37.8 38.6 38.5 38.0 LONG(DEG W) 86.2 85.4 84.5 83.8 83.0 79.8 75.5 73.4 73.0 72.6 71.6 71.4 71.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 12 14 19 15 7 4 4 3 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 25 44 0 40 21 21 15 12 13 19 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 7. 8. 14. 6. 1. -3. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 21. 23. 22. 22. 12. 2. -7. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 27.0 86.2 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.54 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 28.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.19 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.6 37.5 to 2.9 0.26 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.70 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 55.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.92 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.6 -23.1 to 181.5 0.44 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.63 1.0 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.9 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 204.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.74 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 23.2% 11.7% 10.6% 7.5% 9.7% 13.3% Logistic: 4.3% 18.4% 9.4% 3.5% 0.0% 2.1% 1.1% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.4% 14.1% 7.0% 4.7% 2.5% 4.0% 4.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 58 61 54 43 33 38 37 37 26 17 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 57 50 39 29 34 33 33 22 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 44 33 23 28 27 27 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 34 24 29 28 28 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT