* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 53 57 61 64 72 78 77 79 80 71 66 58 V (KT) LAND 50 53 57 61 64 42 32 28 28 32 23 17 DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 53 57 61 64 43 32 28 28 30 29 29 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 9 14 18 18 35 51 41 30 16 17 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 5 0 -4 1 1 0 -1 -6 -2 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 298 292 255 242 259 232 243 232 221 207 231 209 189 SST (C) 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.2 30.2 29.2 29.1 28.1 27.2 26.7 26.4 26.2 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 170 171 171 172 172 157 155 139 126 118 115 115 122 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 154 154 139 136 118 104 94 92 94 100 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -52.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 0.9 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.6 1.3 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 7 7 3 4 1 2 0 3 4 700-500 MB RH 62 63 64 65 62 58 47 41 38 38 40 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 20 23 24 23 27 29 29 33 36 31 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 36 31 55 52 28 68 34 19 32 43 34 26 7 200 MB DIV 29 57 71 81 63 89 70 25 41 23 7 21 8 700-850 TADV 17 17 15 15 19 21 36 17 3 0 0 2 -7 LAND (KM) 412 344 249 129 30 -161 -101 -122 -19 48 61 183 298 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.8 27.6 28.6 29.5 31.5 33.8 35.9 37.7 38.7 38.9 38.9 38.7 LONG(DEG W) 87.0 86.6 86.3 85.6 84.9 83.1 80.2 77.6 75.8 74.5 74.0 72.4 70.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 12 15 16 13 9 4 4 7 9 HEAT CONTENT 36 39 47 45 7 0 39 32 4 39 26 2 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 5 CX,CY: 3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 12. 11. 10. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -5. -11. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 7. 10. 10. 15. 18. 11. 8. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 22. 28. 27. 29. 30. 21. 16. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 26.0 87.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 28.8 to 2.9 0.60 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 34.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.22 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.9 37.5 to 2.9 0.31 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.8 to -3.1 0.56 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.41 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.67 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 174.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.76 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 20.8% 11.6% 10.6% 7.6% 9.9% 16.1% Logistic: 3.6% 17.7% 8.1% 3.5% 0.0% 2.9% 3.0% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3% 0.5% Consensus: 4.1% 13.7% 6.8% 4.7% 2.5% 4.4% 6.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 53 57 61 64 42 32 28 28 32 23 17 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 53 57 60 38 28 24 24 28 19 DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 50 53 31 21 17 17 21 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT