* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/01/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 54 58 63 67 75 82 82 80 76 61 52 44 V (KT) LAND 50 54 58 63 67 56 37 30 31 28 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGEM 50 55 60 65 70 60 38 31 28 30 26 24 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 10 10 13 15 26 39 49 39 28 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 5 1 0 -2 2 0 0 -6 -4 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 301 303 285 258 236 257 238 241 229 216 247 251 240 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.2 30.2 29.9 29.2 28.7 27.5 26.8 26.5 26.1 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 172 172 169 157 149 131 120 116 113 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 157 153 153 154 153 150 139 129 109 97 93 92 93 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -51.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 10 5 6 2 3 0 1 1 4 700-500 MB RH 64 62 64 64 66 65 56 46 49 53 52 52 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 18 20 22 23 25 28 27 28 30 22 20 17 850 MB ENV VOR 44 28 33 45 53 41 44 9 -3 2 9 17 16 200 MB DIV 30 24 48 56 78 71 90 58 62 43 46 6 14 700-850 TADV 7 15 16 14 12 20 21 42 9 -5 3 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 440 414 334 219 112 -62 -50 -96 7 61 96 179 246 LAT (DEG N) 25.5 26.2 26.8 27.8 28.7 30.5 32.7 35.0 37.1 38.4 38.7 39.0 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.7 86.3 85.7 85.2 83.6 81.0 78.3 75.8 74.3 73.7 72.4 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 11 11 13 16 15 12 6 4 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 38 35 37 41 37 43 37 47 1 41 1 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 594 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 14.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -7. -13. -16. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 10. 9. 11. 13. 2. -1. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 17. 25. 32. 32. 30. 27. 11. 2. -6. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.5 87.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.65 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 37.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.8 37.5 to 2.9 0.40 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.41 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 50.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.78 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.34 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.68 1.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 143.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.80 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 24.1% 12.2% 11.4% 8.2% 10.4% 18.8% Logistic: 6.9% 28.6% 16.2% 8.6% 0.0% 8.5% 6.9% Bayesian: 3.1% 2.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6% 0.5% Consensus: 5.8% 18.3% 9.6% 6.8% 2.8% 6.5% 8.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/01/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 58 63 67 56 37 30 31 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 53 58 62 51 32 25 26 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 44 25 18 19 16 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT