* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 08/31/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 54 59 67 77 79 80 79 62 51 43 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 54 59 67 48 51 52 51 34 22 DIS V (KT) LGEM 40 45 50 54 59 69 48 54 57 55 48 42 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 16 20 33 36 28 34 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 3 1 -3 0 -2 -1 0 0 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 311 302 297 279 252 252 241 245 235 232 249 256 235 SST (C) 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.1 30.2 30.1 29.3 29.0 28.2 28.5 27.2 24.9 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 170 170 171 171 172 173 159 155 142 144 125 102 88 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 154 155 152 154 156 144 139 122 117 100 84 74 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -51.6 -50.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.7 -53.7 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.3 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.7 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 10 7 7 4 4 1 2 1 2 700-500 MB RH 67 65 61 62 64 64 62 52 49 51 56 62 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 18 19 21 22 27 27 29 31 23 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 72 55 34 41 54 28 43 5 -7 -1 -9 -1 -7 200 MB DIV 44 37 25 21 28 61 90 59 55 22 69 27 40 700-850 TADV 5 5 8 15 15 11 5 13 9 11 11 9 -7 LAND (KM) 411 399 360 282 173 8 21 60 241 392 340 264 186 LAT (DEG N) 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.4 28.2 29.9 31.9 34.0 35.9 37.4 38.5 39.5 40.4 LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.5 87.1 86.5 85.9 83.9 80.8 77.1 73.2 70.7 69.7 69.2 69.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 9 10 11 14 17 19 15 9 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 42 37 38 46 46 23 26 20 29 50 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 19.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 21. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -2. -7. -12. -17. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 8. 9. 11. 13. 2. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 14. 19. 27. 37. 39. 40. 39. 22. 11. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 25.3 87.8 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 08/31/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.8 to 2.9 0.66 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 41.8 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 37.5 to 2.9 0.73 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.8 to -3.1 0.46 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 40.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.49 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.26 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 28.4 to 139.1 0.77 2.1 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 8.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.91 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 100.2 960.3 to -67.1 0.84 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.0 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.3 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.9 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 9.2% 35.4% 21.3% 12.2% 9.2% 11.8% 20.0% Logistic: 10.2% 31.8% 18.0% 10.8% 0.0% 10.4% 17.0% Bayesian: 5.1% 9.5% 4.0% 1.3% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% Consensus: 8.2% 25.6% 14.4% 8.1% 3.2% 7.6% 12.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 08/31/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 08/31/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 45 49 54 59 67 48 51 52 51 34 22 DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 43 48 53 61 42 45 46 45 28 16 DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 41 46 54 35 38 39 38 21 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 35 43 24 27 28 27 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT