* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 63 72 76 73 76 67 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 45 55 39 46 49 47 49 40 33 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 36 40 44 46 45 41 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 10 13 10 11 18 33 33 37 28 24 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 -2 0 -3 -4 2 3 2 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 318 318 298 286 269 230 241 229 226 231 216 246 235 SST (C) 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 30.2 30.3 29.2 29.4 28.7 28.6 28.3 27.0 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 171 171 171 173 157 161 149 147 140 122 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 158 157 153 153 159 141 144 131 124 114 98 85 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.9 -53.2 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 1.0 0.5 1.3 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 8 10 5 5 3 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 68 67 65 62 62 65 60 51 43 49 53 57 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 24 27 27 32 27 25 850 MB ENV VOR 78 72 56 32 40 47 25 34 5 -33 -8 -26 -8 200 MB DIV 43 44 26 31 42 56 54 69 43 42 47 31 25 700-850 TADV 5 5 4 9 12 5 6 -6 -4 -3 1 15 -5 LAND (KM) 333 412 392 355 259 78 -74 44 122 395 471 419 335 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 26.0 26.8 27.5 29.1 31.3 33.2 34.8 36.2 37.4 38.4 39.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 87.7 87.4 86.8 86.3 84.7 82.2 78.8 74.8 71.4 69.1 68.0 68.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 7 9 9 9 13 16 18 17 13 9 6 4 HEAT CONTENT 49 42 37 40 45 28 26 21 43 45 34 10 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 11.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 0. -6. -12. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 10. 12. 13. 18. 11. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 25. 33. 42. 46. 43. 46. 37. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.6 88.0 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 28.8 to 2.9 0.68 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 42.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.27 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.5 to 2.9 0.82 3.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 -23.1 to 181.5 0.29 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.0 28.4 to 139.1 0.87 1.9 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 89.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 31% is 2.7 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.3 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.1 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 31.3% 16.6% 11.3% 8.6% 10.1% 18.2% Logistic: 16.2% 41.1% 27.1% 18.4% 0.0% 22.1% 34.7% Bayesian: 2.1% 6.2% 4.2% 1.1% 0.6% 0.5% 0.4% Consensus: 8.7% 26.2% 16.0% 10.2% 3.1% 10.9% 17.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 41 45 55 39 46 49 47 49 40 33 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 51 35 42 45 43 45 36 29 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 44 28 35 38 36 38 29 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 34 18 25 28 26 28 19 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT