* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 62 72 77 76 71 61 51 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 45 54 47 53 58 57 51 42 32 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 42 45 51 53 49 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 10 13 10 15 19 32 42 42 52 49 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -2 0 -2 -5 2 3 2 2 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 288 324 317 286 285 255 248 226 228 225 224 222 221 SST (C) 30.4 30.5 30.5 30.3 30.2 30.3 29.7 29.5 29.0 28.4 28.1 26.9 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 168 170 170 170 171 172 166 163 155 145 138 120 112 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 156 158 153 153 158 149 148 138 126 113 95 90 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.4 -51.8 -51.8 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -52.4 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 10 10 9 10 7 6 4 6 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 65 67 66 65 62 64 62 55 45 40 45 48 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 15 15 16 18 19 22 25 26 26 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 82 72 68 55 27 42 15 39 11 1 -33 -29 -13 200 MB DIV 26 37 46 28 23 29 50 82 58 33 43 23 24 700-850 TADV 3 5 4 4 9 8 0 11 3 -4 0 6 12 LAND (KM) 300 361 425 399 360 147 -88 76 113 353 467 409 336 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.4 26.1 26.7 28.4 30.2 32.1 34.1 36.0 37.6 38.5 38.9 LONG(DEG W) 88.1 87.8 87.5 87.1 86.8 85.1 82.8 79.7 75.6 71.9 68.8 68.0 68.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 6 7 7 9 12 15 18 19 17 10 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 48 47 41 39 43 38 51 26 36 39 37 10 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. -3. -11. -19. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 12. 13. 11. 8. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 15. 24. 32. 42. 47. 46. 41. 31. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.3 88.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 28.8 to 2.9 0.69 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 43.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.5 to 2.9 0.70 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.8 to -3.1 0.52 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -23.1 to 181.5 0.27 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.8 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 82.4 960.3 to -67.1 0.85 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.8 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.7 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 26.6% 12.6% 10.8% 8.2% 9.8% 18.6% Logistic: 11.9% 39.5% 26.0% 19.0% 0.0% 15.9% 38.3% Bayesian: 1.3% 9.4% 2.8% 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.8% Consensus: 6.8% 25.2% 13.8% 10.1% 2.8% 8.7% 19.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 45 54 47 53 58 57 51 42 32 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 41 50 43 49 54 53 47 38 28 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 35 44 37 43 48 47 41 32 22 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 34 27 33 38 37 31 22 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT