* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 70 77 75 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 41 52 50 49 43 38 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 36 39 46 54 38 46 48 47 44 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 10 9 9 12 13 18 34 37 40 44 40 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 0 -3 0 -1 -2 -4 6 -1 7 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 250 287 323 310 286 279 229 242 216 230 236 219 207 SST (C) 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.3 29.1 29.2 28.4 28.5 27.5 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 168 168 170 171 171 171 172 156 159 145 145 129 108 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 152 156 157 154 152 158 142 144 127 121 103 88 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.7 1.1 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 10 8 9 4 6 4 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 65 65 66 66 65 63 64 58 46 38 42 53 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 13 14 16 17 19 21 22 26 26 28 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 82 79 72 68 52 23 42 29 49 15 -17 2 -12 200 MB DIV 43 38 52 61 53 42 59 64 82 23 24 48 24 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 4 4 15 3 9 -19 -9 2 8 -9 LAND (KM) 290 329 368 435 387 213 64 -17 77 245 515 451 326 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.6 24.9 25.7 26.4 27.8 29.4 31.4 33.6 35.4 36.7 38.0 39.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.7 87.6 87.2 86.8 85.7 84.3 81.5 77.3 73.2 69.6 68.2 68.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 6 8 8 9 13 18 20 17 12 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 49 49 46 39 40 45 36 3 22 31 34 21 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 12.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 3. -2. -10. -17. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 6. 11. 11. 13. 13. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 33. 40. 47. 45. 43. 38. 33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.2 87.7 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 28.8 to 2.9 0.72 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 0.0 to 155.1 0.29 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.8 to -3.1 0.51 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.35 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.4 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 68.8 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.3 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.9 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.8 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 27.2% 12.4% 10.6% 8.1% 9.7% 19.3% Logistic: 10.2% 39.4% 24.1% 16.2% 0.0% 13.9% 38.8% Bayesian: 1.3% 6.4% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7% Consensus: 6.2% 24.3% 12.9% 9.1% 2.7% 8.0% 19.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/31/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 40 44 53 63 41 52 50 49 43 38 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 49 59 37 48 46 45 39 34 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 43 53 31 42 40 39 33 28 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 33 43 21 32 30 29 23 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT