* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/30/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 38 43 50 60 66 72 79 78 78 78 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 38 43 50 60 47 53 59 59 59 59 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 44 52 43 49 56 58 58 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 8 8 12 11 18 16 26 29 31 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -1 0 -3 -3 -1 -6 3 0 4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 276 254 283 302 295 275 257 257 224 222 235 246 244 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.3 30.2 29.3 29.6 29.0 28.0 27.8 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 169 169 169 170 171 172 172 159 164 154 138 135 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 154 155 155 157 156 142 147 135 119 115 116 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -53.0 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 9 8 10 9 10 7 7 6 7 5 3 700-500 MB RH 68 66 64 66 65 62 66 63 56 44 43 50 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 13 13 15 15 18 19 21 26 27 29 31 850 MB ENV VOR 85 83 78 74 63 13 34 6 19 15 0 3 -1 200 MB DIV 60 47 40 41 39 50 39 42 67 53 22 38 90 700-850 TADV -1 0 2 4 4 5 17 -3 -7 -31 -6 10 27 LAND (KM) 308 338 367 436 388 222 29 54 199 290 503 698 701 LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.6 26.2 27.7 29.4 30.9 32.3 33.5 34.6 35.8 37.1 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.4 87.7 87.4 87.1 85.5 83.6 80.9 77.3 73.7 70.5 67.5 64.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 15 14 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 48 48 46 39 39 43 22 24 47 32 19 27 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=618) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 30 KT IN 24 HR): 7.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 2. -2. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 3. 5. 12. 12. 13. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 13. 20. 30. 36. 42. 49. 48. 48. 48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 24.3 87.1 ** 2015 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 28.8 to 2.9 0.74 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/cm2) : 44.0 0.0 to 155.1 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 37.5 to 2.9 0.61 1.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.8 to -3.1 0.40 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (kt) : 30.0 22.5 to 121.0 0.21 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.4 -23.1 to 181.5 0.33 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.2 28.4 to 139.1 0.86 1.4 % AREA WITH TPW <45 mm: 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (w/m2): 67.6 960.3 to -67.1 0.87 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times sample mean ( 5.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times sample mean (11.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times sample mean ( 7.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times sample mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.8 times sample mean ( 2.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times sample mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.6 times sample mean ( 5.1%) Matrix of RI probabilities --------------------------------------------------------------------- RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 --------------------------------------------------------------------- SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 22.3% 11.9% 10.3% 7.8% 9.6% 18.4% Logistic: 7.5% 29.4% 16.6% 9.9% 0.0% 15.1% 43.6% Bayesian: 1.0% 11.3% 3.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.7% 0.7% Consensus: 5.0% 21.0% 10.5% 7.0% 2.7% 8.4% 20.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/30/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/30/2016 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 35 38 43 50 60 47 53 59 59 59 59 18HR AGO 30 29 31 34 39 46 56 43 49 55 55 55 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 34 41 51 38 44 50 50 50 50 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 32 42 29 35 41 41 41 41 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT